Jemal Public Affairs

No Longer America’s Most Republican County?
Written November 13, 2008

I checked once, twice, a third time. Senator John McCain carried Orange County, California by less than 4 percent over Senator Barack Obama. At last count, 549,276 votes for McCain; 509,725 for Obama, on the home turf of famous Republican political groups like the Lincoln Club and New Majority.

It is the best performance by a Democrat in Orange County in 72 years. Not the result you would expect from what local GOP leaders have branded as “America’s Most Republican County.”

Twenty-one states provided the Arizona Senator with a greater margin of victory.

Some argue the thin margin of McCain’s O.C. victory is an aberration. President George Bush’s sustained unpopularity, economic distress, financial crisis and the selection of lightweight and stridently social conservative Sarah Palin helped fuel the once-in-a-generation uprising.

True, the Obama tidal wave did not translate into any O.C. congressional Republican seats turning over despite strong candidates, such as Hunting Beach Mayor Debbie Cook challenging long-time incumbent Rep. Dana Rohrabacher. We can largely thank gerrymandered congressional districts, which virtually guarantee the election of candidates from the two major political parties, in keeping incumbents unscathed. Tangentially, this is why the passage of Prop. 11 only is a partial victory; it deals directly with state legislative redistricting but not congressional.

The election was fundamentally a referendum on the Bush presidency. This takes away nothing from Barack Obama’s well-deserved historic victory. Barack Obama is a fascinating and compelling candidate. He possesses an eloquence and dexterity McCain lacks. I am hopeful he will be great American president.

Bush’s eight years in the Oval Office crushed the Republican brand. Downstream U.S. House and Senate Republicans scrambled to distance themselves from the disillusionment engendered by the Bush presidency.

We need not be reminded that Bush’s actions as President belied his pledges as candidate. Remember his now-discredited slogan, “compassionate conservative?” What did we get instead? Everything got bigger: government, spending, deficit, debt and depth of deception. What happened to limited government, both domestically and overseas?

Does this mean that the famously “red county” image of O.C. will turn blue in the next election? Not necessarily. However, the demographics continue to change. Voters of all ages understand better that decisions based on a flawed ideology can be reckless and cause significant harm to our country. What standing do neo-conservatives, such as Paul Wolfowitz, have today with rank-and-file Republicans? Many life-long Republicans have a right to feel betrayed.

The other development in Orange County, and across the nation, is that more people are realizing that government decisions really matter and that public policies can help or harm our way of life. The housing and financial crisis, along with declining median home prices, resulted in kitchen-table conversations about the role of government and public policy seldom discussed before. While the economic and housing downturn caused real pain to many, it also served as an enlightening on the role of government and how its decisions affect our businesses and quality of life.

The technology industry, crucial to our nation’s competitive advantage, is another example where a crisis looms unless government wakes up. The news is still mostly good but signs of trouble are rising. Nearly 1 million technology workers in California earn an average annual wage topping $100,000, more than 60 percent higher than the average annual wage in other industries. In Orange County, the average high-tech wage was $81,900, 68 percent higher than the average private sector wage.

Some argue, based on ideology, that technology innovators and entrepreneurs don’t need government involvement because the market, if truly free, will produce the breakthroughs that will keep America on the leading edge. Although the free market and America’s entrepreneurial culture is still our core advantage, to think that government has no role is naïve. And what is dangerous is that federal and state legislators continue to make harmful policy decisions, like turning away the world’s best and brightest due to short-sighted immigration laws, with little or no input from the overwhelming majority of California-based technology companies.

I moved to Orange County in 2001. The Orange County Business Council rightly and proudly boasts that it is the fifth largest in the nation. Yet political decisions, and ideas for government action, seemed to be generated by a small cadre of individuals on the far right of the political spectrum.

Today, many of these same people blog endlessly, mainly to each other, about how the county and world should work. Their decidedly partisan ideas have grown out of touch with a large swath of voters in the county previously disinterested in the political process.

Grassroots movements (where you actually get more people of all political affiliations involved in the process to help educate and, yes, lobby governments and politicians) really do work. One can be principled without being an ideologue.

Politics is for those who show up. It is also the art of the possible. This election proved that.

Tim Jemal is CEO of Jemal Public Affairs and the Executive Director of the bipartisan Technology Leadership Political Action Committee (TLPAC).